Sun Aug 30 · mid-shift break ~7:00–8:30am · 7'4" TJ Twinzer
Chris works Sunday (~0600–1600), so dawn patrol is out — the only window is an early mid-shift surf break. A 16–17s SSW–S groundswell is running (fading through the day), chest-to-head-high sets on the reef, light SE wind at dawn before the SW sea breeze fills to onshore 10kt by ~11am. Tide rises off a 0.5ft low at 4:49am toward a 5.2ft high at 11:05 — good low-to-mid incoming roughly 6:30–9:30am. Long-period S wraps Cardiff Reef into long forgiving rights; kelp grooms the light windswell texture. It's small and it's Sunday (crowd), but the wave quality is there for a quick hour. If the break can't land before ~9:30am, skip it — aim for Thursday off.
Data pulled Sat Aug 29 ~4:52pm PT (delayed evening run, re-scraped) · buoys + NOAA tides + NWS + Open-Meteo + Wavecast (Thu 8/27 post). Surfline not checked (no browser in automated runs).
Tippers clears all four rubric factors (optimal S angle, 15s period, ~5kt wind, incoming mid tide) and scores 100 — but it's held to ON, not FIRING, because the face is only chest-to-head-high and fading; the scoring table has no size term, so read the label. Blacks is genuinely turning on for its south peak (face ~4–5ft, under the skill cap) and would be the pick on a day off — but a 40+ min drive rules it out for a mid-shift break. South Ponto is rideable but the 15s+ period sits above its 10–14s sweet spot, so closeout sections are likely on the straight bars.
Days to Watch
Thursday Sep 3 — next day off. The S groundswell drops midweek into short-period NW windswell (Open-Meteo has 9/1–9/2 at 6–7s). Wavecast (Thu 8/27, Nathan Cool) is watching a moderate SW ground swell for Sept 9–10, with more tropical swell possible on the long range. Full Moon this week means big tidal swings. Water a warm 76°F.