Dawn (5:23–9am) already passed · Strength A ~10:30am · swing shift 2pm–12am
Tippers and South Ponto would have fired at dawn — clean 2ft SSW @ 11–13s, glassy wind, low-incoming tide. But this morning run executed at 9:50am instead of 6am: wind is already filling in toward 10mph onshore and the tide has flooded from -1.6ft to ~3.8ft, closing on the +4.1ft high at 10:45am. There isn't a clean window left before Strength A or your 2pm–midnight shift. Next look: swell fades further tomorrow and you're protecting swing-block sleep through 9:30am anyway — Thursday's off day or the 7/18–19 swell bump are the real next shots.
Data from daily-surf-brief, pulled Tue Jul 14 9:50am PDT · buoys + NOAA + NWS + Open-Meteo + Wavecast (Sun 7/12 post, no fresh Tue post live yet).
Condition Gauges — 5:23–9am dawn window (already passed)
Tide — Tuesday July 14 (La Jolla 9410230)
low-to-mid window (Tippers/Ponto, 0–3ft)Chris's session windows (5:30–8:30am / 4–6:30pm)tide height
Stoke Meter (dawn window, for the record)
Both spots would have scored well at dawn — Tippers gets a kelp-grooming wind upgrade, Ponto trades that for a slightly better period fit. Neither matters today: the window closed before this run executed. Blacks, Cliffs, Oceanside Harbor, and Windansea all sit out regardless — swell angle/period doesn't clear their bar, or (Windansea) tide was still too low through the whole dawn window.
Days to Watch
Weekend of Jul 18–19 — both Wavecast and Surfline LOTUS are flagging a tropical-driven swell build, 5–7ft by Sunday. Thu 7/16 evening–Fri 7/17 AM — Open-Meteo hourly shows a shorter-period pulse (12–14.6s) worth a fresh look. Wed 7/15 — you're protecting swing-block sleep through ~9:30am, so dawn's off the table even though the tide/wind pattern repeats.