Old S groundswell is holding steadier than last night's forecast expected (14–15s at dawn, not crashed to sub-6s) — but it was never big, so faces stay ~2.5–3.5ft either way. The -0.67ft low tide bottoms out at 6:13am, right inside the session, not pushing in ahead of it. Surfline's LOTUS independently rates both Ponto and Cardiff Reef POOR for today, forecaster: "small surf... crumble to bump on it all day." Wind stays light (~4kt S) through 9am but isn't offshore, and there's no PM window either — afternoon wind only "eases a little." Fri 7/17 is an off day per the training plan, so this is a pure conditions skip, not a scheduling one.
Data from daily-surf-brief morning run, pulled Fri Jul 17 ~6:15am PDT · buoys + NOAA + NWS + Open-Meteo + Wavecast (Thu 7/16 post, no new post yet) + Surfline Premium (Ponto, Cardiff Reef, pulled Thu 7/16 evening via Chris's Chrome session).
Condition Gauges — 5:25–8:30am dawn window
Tide — Friday July 17 (La Jolla 9410230)
low-to-mid window (Tippers/Ponto, 0–3ft)Chris's session windows (5:30–8:30am / 4–6:30pm)tide height
Stoke Meter (dawn window)
Neither spot clears 60. Period actually held up better than modeled (14–15s at both buoys this morning vs. last night's sub-6s prediction) — good news for Tippers specifically, but both spots' SW ~219–230° angle sits at the marginal edge of their optimal windows, and the -0.67ft low lands mid-window, not pushing in ahead of it. Surfline's forecaster calls the tide the main problem, not just a heuristic read. Blacks, Sunset Cliffs, Oceanside Harbor, and Windansea all sit out — buoy-derived faces (~2.5–3.5ft) fall under every conditional spot's 3–4ft floor.
Days to Watch
Sat Jul 18 evening — S wind winds down through the day per Surfline; the one window worth checking this week. Sun Jul 19 → Mon Jul 20 — Tropical Storm Elida sends a fun-to-locally-good pulse, LOTUS calling 4–6ft+ at Ponto by Sunday, best in the far north county, continuing Monday AM before dropping off.